Later on I will update with why I anticipate the election this way.
Suffice it to say:
The Trump-indicated states Most likely to flip for Clinton are Florida, New Hampshire and Michigan.
The Clinton-indicated states Most likely to flip for Trump are Maine district 2 and Colorado.
I consider this chart to underestimate Trumps performance. Note, however that losing Florida is a major failure-vector. If that is lost, Trump needs a few surprise victories. Perhaps Pennsylvania.